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Cox lowers full-year forecast to 14.4 million vehicles

“Last June, I wrote that the concern about the supply situation could not be overstated, as we were in untested territory for the market,” Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said in a statement. “That sentiment remains, as there has been no significant shift in the conditions on the ground since last fall. Even though economic conditions have worsened in the past months, the lack of supply is still the greatest headwind facing the auto industry today.”

Edmunds on Tuesday also called for a year-over-year sales decline driven by inventory shortages, predicting second-quarter sales will fall 20.8 percent from the same period a year ago.

Cox forecasts a June seasonally adjusted annual selling rate of 13.8 million vehicles, down 7.5 percent from a year earlier. It says June sales volume will fall 7.5 percent to 1.2 million vehicles.

J.D. Power and LMC Automotive have called for a steeper, 12.4 percent decrease, unadjusted for selling days.

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