Health

States with the lowest vaccination rates are recording 4 times the deaths as most vaccinated states

U.S. states with the lowest vaccination rates are recording many more deaths from COVID-19 than their highly vaccinated peers. 

A DailyMail.com analysis finds that 10 states – Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wyoming – with the lowest vaccination rates accounted for 73.9 deaths per 100,000 residents, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

By comparison, the 10 states with the highest vaccination rates – Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington – recorded 18.9 deaths per 100,000 residents.

That means Americans living in the least vaccinated states are dying at a rate nearly four times as high as those in the most vaccinated states. 

It comes as data shows three states in the South – Alabama, Georgia and Texas – are responsible for one-third of the more than 10,000 deaths in the nation last week. 

Experts say that fatalities are a lagging indicator and often don’t start to decline until three or four weeks after cases and hospitalizations do, which means that deaths are expected to fall soon. 

In fact, a recent model from the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub predicts that the number of daily deaths will fall below 100 by March 2022.

The ten states with the highest vaccination rates are recording only a quarter as many deaths per 100,000 as the states with the ten lowest vaccination rates. The average death rate per 100,000 residents for the least vaccinated states is 73.9, while it is only 17.8 for the most vaccinated

Unvaccinated Americans have borne the brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic since the Delta variant-fueled surge began in early summer.

Nearly all Covid deaths and hospitalizations in the U.S. are among unvaccinated people, despite this group making up less than 30 percent of the adult population.

States with lower vaccination rates have also suffered from a greater spread of the virus, and dwindling hospital resources to deal with surges of cases.

All of the ten states with the lowest vaccination rates in America are either in the South or Great Plains regions of the nation.

On the other hand, eight of the ten states with the highest vaccination rates are in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions of the U.S.

These massive geographical differences exacerbate virus spread in some areas, because unvaccinated people living near other unvaccinated people are more likely to contract the virus than an unvaccinated person in a largely vaccinated community.  

It also presents issues when further medical care is necessary because unvaccinated people in largely vaccinated communities are likely to live in an area with more available hospital resources.

These issues compound, creating a large gap in the number of deaths from the virus depending on what part of the country a person lives in. 

Alabama, which among the states with the lowest vaccination rates with only 42 percent of residents being fully vaccinated, is recording more deaths per 100,000 residents than any state in America.

More than 15 out of every 100,000 Alabamans died from the virus in the past seven days, CDC data show.

The state’s death rate is nearly 50 percent higher than any other state, with only West Virginia – also among the least vaccinated states – coming in second with 10.4 out of 100,000 residents dying last week.

No other state recorded more than ten out of every 100,000 residents dying over the past seven days.

Alabama, which recorded 742 deaths last week, joins Texas and Georgia as the states accounting for a large share of nation’s current Covid crisis – accounting for 3,500 of the 14,000 deaths recorded in the U.S. over the past week.

Georgia, also among the least vaccinated states with 44 percent of residents being fully vaccinated, recorded 872 deaths over the past seven days – or 8.2 per every 100,000 residents. 

Texas has the dubious honor of leading the nation in Covid deaths last week, recording 1,931 – or 6.7 of every 100,000.

The three states combine for just over 3,500 deaths between them, out of around 10,000 recorded by the nations as a whole.

Deaths have been rising recently, increasing 25 percent from around 1,500 deaths per day to 2,000 per day over the past two weeks.

However, cases are finally dropping as it seems the summer Covid wave has come to an end.

Because deaths lag behind cases by a few weeks, experts predict that deaths will soon begin to drop as well. 

New model predicts COVID cases will decline through winter and drop to 9,000 per day by March 2022 – with daily deaths falling below 100

By Mary Kekatos, Acting U.S. Health Editor for DailyMail.com

The end of the COVID-19 pandemic may be near with cases and deaths declining to levels not seen in more than a year by next spring, a new model predicts.

The analysis, conducted by the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), looked at different scenarios regarding the trajectory of the pandemic.

Researchers predicted that the U.S. has reached the peak of the fourth wave fueled by the Delta variant and will see all indicators improve.

This includes the number of virus cases dropping to about 9,000 per day and the number of daily deaths falling below 100 by March 2022.

BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR CASES: A new model predicts that, in a best case scenario, weekly COVID-19 cases will decline from 993,279 currently, or 141,897 per day, to 63,383 weekly cases, or 9,054 per day by March 2022 (above)

BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR CASES: A new model predicts that, in a best case scenario, weekly COVID-19 cases will decline from 993,279 currently, or 141,897 per day, to 63,383 weekly cases, or 9,054 per day by March 2022 (above)

BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR DEATHS: Deaths are also projected to drop from 11,563 current weekly deaths, or 1,651 per day, to 415 weekly fatalities, or about 59 per day (above)

BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR DEATHS: Deaths are also projected to drop from 11,563 current weekly deaths, or 1,651 per day, to 415 weekly fatalities, or about 59 per day (above)

For the new model, which was published on Wednesday, the team amalgamated nine different models from universities across the U.S.

Researchers came up with four different scenarios depending on whether or not children between ages five and 11 are authorized to get vaccinated and whether or not a new variant starts spreading.

The model does not advocate for or against childhood vaccinations, but merely suggests they will begin occurring by fall 2021.   

Lessler told NPR that the most likely scenario sees kids being approved for Covid shots against and no highly transmissible strain being identified.

According to the model, this will result in weekly COVID-19 cases declining from the current 993,279, or 141,897 per day, to 63,383 weekly cases, or 9,054 per day by March 2022.

Deaths would also fall from 11,563 weekly deaths now, or 1,651 per day, to 415 weekly fatalities, or about 59 per day. 

These are figures not seen since late March 2020, when states first began shutting down and implementing stay-at-home orders.  

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