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2022 Stanley Cup Final: Lightning vs. Avalanche odds, NHL picks, Game 5 prediction from proven hockey model

A changing of the guard could be in the offing on Friday evening at Ball Arena. The Tampa Bay Lightning visit the Colorado Avalanche for Game 5 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. Tampa Bay is seeking a third straight championship, with Colorado aiming to bring the Stanley Cup to Denver for the first time since 2001. The Avs lead the series by a 3-1 margin and can clinch with a win at home.

Colorado is a -190 favorite (risk $190 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Lightning vs. Avalanche odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Tampa Bay is a +160 underdog, and the over-under for total goals scored is six. The opening faceoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Denver. Before making any Avalanche vs. Lightning picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It enters the second week of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on a 23-18 run on its top-rated NHL side picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has its sights on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs: 

  • Lightning vs. Avalanche money line: Avalanche -190, Lightning +160
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche over-under: 6 goals
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche puck line: Avalanche -1.5 (+145)
  • Lightning vs. Avalanche tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • TB: The Lightning were 24-15-2 in regular season road games
  • COL: The Avalanche were 32-5-4 in regular season home games

Featured Game | Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Why the Avalanche can win

Colorado is rolling in the postseason, posting a 15-3 record with eight wins in the last nine games. Power play efficiency on both ends has been a huge part of the team’s success, but overall firepower on offense is also key. The Avalanche received the game-winning goal from Nazem Kadri in Game 4 in his return from injury, adding yet another intriguing piece to a team that is averaging a league-leading 4.50 goals per game in the playoffs. Colorado leads the Stanley Cup Playoffs with a 34.5 percent power play rate, and the Avalanche have more than 200 points in the postseason. 

In the regular season, the Avalanche were in the top four of the NHL in goals, shots per game and assists, and Colorado led the league in power play goals. Balance is the order of the day for Colorado as well, with four of the top 20 players in the NHL in both points and assists in 2021-22. Nathan MacKinnon is No. 2 in the playoffs with 12 goals, and he averaged 1.35 points per game this season. Cale Makar is a breakout star, and he is No. 3 in the playoffs with 27 points. In addition, Gabriel Landeskog has 11 playoff goals, No. 3 in the NHL, and Mikko Rantanen is in the top five of the league with 20 assists and 25 points.

Why the Lightning can win

Tampa Bay’s roster is battle-tested, as the Lightning are the first team since Edmonton nearly four decades ago to reach the Stanley Cup Final three straight times. The Lightning overcame a 3-2 deficit earlier in the postseason, and Tampa Bay’s defense is firming up with only five goals allowed, including one in overtime, over the last two games. Tampa Bay’s offense is dynamic, averaging 3.48 goals per game in the regular season and ranking No. 3 in the NHL in shooting percentage at 11.2 percent. The Lightning were also in the top 10 in goals allowed and save percentage, with a four-time All-Star goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy. He has 71 saves in the last two games, and Tampa Bay has offensive firepower in front of him. 

Steven Stamkos was in the top 10 of the NHL in goals and assists this season, and he has 10 playoff goals. Nikita Kucherov, a four-time All-Star, finished No. 2 in the NHL in points per game (1.47) this season and has 26 points in the playoffs. Victor Hedman is playing as well as any player in the series, and the talented defenseman is capable of boosting Tampa Bay on both ends of the ice.

How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 7.1 goals. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 5 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Avalanche vs. Lightning money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.

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