The repercussions of strained relations between Bilateral Tensions new Delhi and Ottawa are surfacing in immigration dynamics, notably evident in a sharp decline in applications for permanent residency (PR) in Canada from Indian nationals. According to data released by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), the number of PR applications from Indians plummeted by over 62% in December 2023, falling from 16,796 in 2022 to 6,329 in 2023. This trend persisted throughout the last quarter of 2023, with applications from Indians decreasing from 35,735 to 19,579 during that period.
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Bilateral Tensions
Various factors contribute to this decline, Bilateral Tensions with one significant element being the state of bilateral ties. The decline coincides with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s statement in the House of Commons on September 18, where he mentioned “credible allegations” of a potential link between Indian agents and the killing of pro-Khalistan figure Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey, British Columbia, on June 18 of the same year.
While the connection for the October-December quarter is evident, it is worth noting that PR applications from Indians had increased substantially in previous months, including September. The higher figures between January and September 2023 brought the overall figure for the year to 90,215, compared to 38,6577 from all countries in 2022 and 112,107 out of 426,730 in 2023.
Another contributing factor to the decrease in numbers is the reduced diplomatic presence of Canada in India, stemming from the expulsion of 41 diplomats in October, as New Delhi sought “parity” in diplomatic representation. Described as a “mass expulsion” by Ottawa, this move also resulted in fewer IRCC staff in the country.
The diminishing numbers align with Canada’s decision not to increase PR levels in the immediate future. Despite maintaining its targets of 485,000 permanent residents for 2024 and 500,000 in 2025, as announced in 2022, the IRCC’s statement in December hinted at a stabilization plan for the future, stating, “Starting in 2026, the government will stabilize permanent resident levels at 500,000, allowing time for successful integration while continuing to augment Canada’s labor market.” The evolving diplomatic landscape and its impact on immigration patterns reflect the complex interplay between political relations and global mobility.
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